Business & Economic Research Center

Pulse On Our Local Economy

The Indiana University East Business and Economics Research Center:

  • Assists in collecting and creating economic data that will be useful in supporting the economic vitality of the Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio regions.
  • Conducts economic research and studies to capture the pulse of the local and regional economy.
  • Works with community groups/organizations to enhance the knowledge of the local business environment.

Business Outlook Panel

Description of the video:

Good morning. Welcome to the Indiana University East and the Kelly School of Business, Virtual Business outlet or 2021. I'm Denise Smith, dean at the School of Business and Economics at Indiana University East. We're honored to have hosted this event for nearly 30 years and to provide this insightful information to our community. This is our first ever virtual event. I, and we're very happy that you've joined us. I will now introduce our moderator for today, Dr. idling IT Kasner was appointed Dean of the Kennedy School of Business at Indiana University in July 2013. She's also the Frank P. Pop off chair strategic management in Kitchener, joined the Kelly School faculty in 1995 and has served in many leadership roles, including Associate Dean of Faculty, Research, Chair of the MBA program, and Chair of the Department of Management and Entrepreneurship. Her research focuses on corporate boards, executive succession, and mergers and acquisitions. In addition to teaching more than 100 executive education classes, she has consulted with many national and international firms on management and board related issues. She currently serves on five boards. She has won dozens of teaching awards at the Kelly School and at the University of North Carolina, where she was a professor for 12 years. She recently was named Business Dean School of the year by poets and clocks, which is a leading business school media outlet. In Kasner earned her MBA and PhD from the Kelly School and her bachelor's degree in business administration from Southern Methodist University. Today's panel will discuss various perspectives on the business outlook. I will first be talking about the international and national perspective, then financial markets than the state of Indiana. And finally, the Richmond metro area outlook. Now and help me welcome Dr. Dean Kasner. And please pay attention and we'll be taking questions and answers. Please drop your questions into the Q and a box at the bottom of the screen, and those will be answered after the panelists, CIF, finish their presentations. Thank you. Welcome, Dean Kasner. Thank you. I want to welcome everyone in thanking submit for your welcome and for serving as our post today. Now, before I introduce our panelists, I want to say just a brief word about the Indiana Business Research Center or IDRC. The ITRC reach is a center within the Kelly School of Business at the University. Has just been a tremendous asset for school, because school just celebrating its centennial or 100th anniversary this year. And the Ib RC has been a part of the school for nearly its entire history. Since 1925, IDRC has monetary, socioeconomic trends as they relate to our state, the Midwest, and the nation. Idrc provides and interprets economic information needed by businesses, governments, and non-profit organizations. Included in the sector are things like staff in Vienna, which is statistics for states, counties, cities and towns, townships, regions, census tracts and more. Stats American law, which is a warning to us, data supported by the US Economic Development Administration. Pushers by the numbers, which is workforce data, unleashing data for decision making and Research, which is a partnership with State agencies and the Indiana Business Research Center to improve the quality and usability and state data. There's Indiana gateway, which provides information about how taxes and other public dollars are budgeted and spent by India has local units of government. And also the Center for Economic Model research, or see EMR, which is quarterly economic forecasting the United States, Indiana and Indiana metropolitan areas. Idrc publishes a lot of different reports, including in contexts which provide substitutive, easy to read articles about India and its workforce and economy. It's published on our bi-monthly basis, Indiana Business Review, which has been published in 1926. And this publication bytes analysis and insights of Indiana's economic and demographic issues. And also Indiana economic digest, which is about daily news from newspapers around the State focusing on very significant business topics. And as you can see, ITRC plays a very important role for our state. I encourage you to go to their website and read a little bit more and gather some more data about IDRC If you're interested. Now let me move forward and introduce our four panelists for today. And I'm going to start with Dr. Elly might be crap. Dr. Kraft is a native of France and holds a BS, an MA, and PhD in economics. She's a Clinical Associate Professor of Business Economics and Public Policy at the Kelly School of Business since 2006, and an affiliate faculty at the Institute for European studies. She co-authors the yearly international outlook for the Indiana Business Research Center at IU, or professional interests are in international economics with an emphasis on the relationship between business, government and society. And she's also interested in strategic sustainability to see if firms in a given industry or building reputations in sustainability, whether they, they've had performance gains over those that have not. Dr. Sheng Yu Wang is Professor of Business Finance and the Edward II Edwards professor at the Kelly School of Business at Indiana University. He was formerly a vice president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he was the head or financial intermediation function. During the recent financial crisis, he contributed directly to the design of Fed emergency liquidity facilities, reform of that discount window, collateral management. The bailout of Bear Stearns and AIG, the security design of tarp, and the development of new capital requirements for banks. Before working at the New York Fed, he was a faculty member in the Graduate School of Business and Columbia University for nine years at School of Business in UT Austin per one year, he's published research on equity, fixed income, derivative securities, asset management, financial econometrics. Professor Wang obtained his PhD degree in Economics, University of Minnesota, where we see the Alfred P. Sloan doctoral dissertation fellowship. Dr. Boy Lin Chong is an associate professor of finance working where the School of Business and Economics IN east. She teaches finance courses to juniors and seniors and she's also the discipline coordinator. Beck announced and finance, overseeing the economic and financial curricula in the undergraduate business degree program at her campus. In addition, she serves as the director of the IU East Business and Economic Research Center. She conducts the annual East Central Indiana Business survey and writes the Richmond forecast report, which is published in the Indiana Business Review. She also maintains the IU east regional business confidence index and writes the annual East Central Indiana Business survey report that was released on her Center website. Professor China all holds a BBA, an MBA from the University of Macau, and an MS and PhD in financial economics from the University of New Orleans. And Dr. Kyle Anderson. Pile Anderson is a Clinical Assistant Professor of Business Economics, Ned Kelly School of Business in Indianapolis. And he's director of the Kelly schools evening or part-time MBA program on the UI canvas is research focuses on pricing, options and online markets. And he's published several articles in academic journals. His MBA and PhD from the Kelly School of Business in Bloomington. In addition to his academic work, he has seven years of experience in the healthcare industry, the heavy trucking industry, cows and needed the Indianapolis. He and his wife and daughter reside in Bloomington. Now, as I turn over the presentation to Dr. might be, I want to remind our audience members, as did Dean Smith, to submit their questions for the Q and a function which is below your screen, Dr. Moffitt graph. I'll turn it over to you. Thank you very much and good morning to everyone. So in a time of no traveling, my mission is to take you around the globe, emphasizing on the US, China, ill area, and Latin America. So last year, I allo group at the Indiana Business Research Center. Forecasted a global output growth of about 3% for 20-20. But a microscopic virus came into the picture. And instead of a growth in economic activity, we are experiencing a global recession of a magnitude not seen since world war two. It is estimated that by the end of 2020, the global economy will have shrunk by 4.4%. So the number forecasting today may not be relevant tomorrow because the pandemic, which is our greatest obstacle to the recovery, It's something that we have never experienced in modern times. As long as the virus circulates unchecked, growth is compromised. At any moment, a resurgence of carving 19 infections and sub-sequence tightening of government restriction can threaten to drag the world in an even more prolonged recession. Our group at the Ib RC, is cautiously optimistic that our estimate of a 5% global recovery in 2021 will be just enough to erase the 20-20 Global drop in output. So let's look at the United States a little bit more closely. In the second quarter of 2020, the Bureau of Economic Statistics recorded data never seen before. From April to June, the year over year declining US GDP was 9.5%. To put that in historical perspective, at the height of the global financial crises in the second quarter of 2009, the GDP contracted by 3.9%. In April 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics recorded a record unemployment rate, 14.7%. As more than 20 million Americans abruptly lost their jobs, it could take years to return to the 3.5% unemployment rates the US recorded in February 20-20. Because no one really knows what the post pandemic economy will look like. Corporate default rates are increasing. And more than half of the small business owners surveyed by the US Chamber of Commerce worry about having to permanently close their businesses. Clearly, the pandemic has created extraordinary circumstances. New challenges for policymaker in the United States and around the globe. It has affected aggregate supply and aggregate demand simultaneously. These two sided market shock has consequently intensify the need for greater and more coordinated interaction between monetary policy and fiscal policy to try and minimize the economic harm. In regards to monetary policy, the Federal Reserved lowered its policy rate to near 0 and increased its holding of US securities. Help keep consumer credit available and Boeing cost low. Additionally, in order to continue to support donations recovery, the 0 interest rate policy was announced to last through 22-23. In regards to the fiscal policy, the US Congress voted the cares ACT that provided help to families and businesses. As of now, Republicans and Democrats have not been able to agree on a renewed fiscal package in a country where inequality is rising and racial and ethnic minorities are left behind. The downside, the forecast in the United States is the intensifying political divisions. In the short run, it is not clear why the economy will end. However, thanks to the country's structural potential, technology, labor force, the flexibility of the economy and the world appetite for the dollar. We estimate growth in the US to be above 3% in 2021. So now let's look at the second biggest economy in the world, China. At the start of 2020, China experienced its first output decline in more than four decades and is now expected to expand at its lowest annual pace. Since Mao's Cultural Revolution in 1976. That said, China will be the only major economy with a positive growth in the year 2020, we forecast China's GDP to expand by 2% in 20-20, thanks to a robust recovery that has not been obstructed by a strong resurgence of the coronavirus. It is projected that GDP growth in China will further increase in 2021 to above 8%. The return to growth has been powered by the countries state back industrial sector thanks to a pandemic that originated within the Chinese borders and left economies outside of China floundering. China's manufacturing power shifted to address the global demand for medical products and other work from home equipment. However, I meet global backlash with the United States on trade and technology. Calls for inquiries from Australia and a growing US led coalition against Huawei, global demand for Chinese products somewhat decreasing. Furthermore, South Asian countries such as Vietnam, with a lower wage environment and less trade risk or emerging as a more attractive trade partners in the global supply chain. Nevertheless, it is important to signal that China's relatively strong recovery has supported many economies around the world. Specifically China's stimulus led infrastructure expansion allowed many export-led countries, in particular, commodity exporters to recover while their service activities continue to be hampered by the resurgence of the virus. Next slide, please. Now, onto the euro area. The area is divided into zones, the North and the South. In the North, Germany and Netherlands have leverage, their large budget surpluses and robust industrial structure to straighten their resiliency to the pandemic. However, in the south, countries like Spain, Portugal, Italy, and even friends have put the most stringent lock downs and counted the greatest number of death. Their fiscal space was initially more constrained and therefore safety nets they could offer their businesses and their residence more limited. Furthermore, the Southern economy do rely on tourism, particularly in France, which rely heavily on tourism, aeronautics, and luxury products, some of the hardest heat economic sector during the pandemic, the economic burden has been significant. These north south dichotomy was viewed initially as the last straw to the fragile unity in the euro area. But unprecedented coordinated efforts from the European Commission on the fiscal side and the European Central Bank on the monetary side, has so far supported the Euro area by limiting the economic devastation. Although we estimates that by the end of 2020, the Eurozone annual GDP will drop by present. The safety nets that were deployed by the European institutions will remain essential to stabilize the European financial market. Likewise, the safety nets will support donation expenditures related to the pandemic, provide credit guarantees to firms and support the most vulnerable households in Europe. We are hopeful that with a sustain coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus, the Euro zone will rebound and that economic activity will increase by 5% in 2021. Finally, let's take a quick look. And Latin America, the region includes large economies, such as Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, that represent 8% of the world's population and account for 30% of global covet, 19 cases and 1 third of death. Many countries in the region depend on tourism. Commodity export, and capital inflows, including remittances. With commodity prices had then lowest historical level. Tourism at a standstill and remittances dropping has, unemployment has risen around the world. Those countries are greatly hit impacting the region as a whole. Furthermore, these emerging markets cannot increase there and that meant without raising fears of future default, the macroeconomic tools to listen, the cataclysm of covered 19 unlimited in the region and therefore the return to pretend any growth rate would likely take years. Adding to concern social and political problems in the region are about to erase ten years of sustained increases in middle-class living standard. Next slide please. So in conclusion, in the first part of 20-20, virtually every country in the world experienced a choise I simultaneous collapse in economic activity. Mind you collapse that was historically unmatched in time of peace. The swift, comprehensive and well targeted monetary and fiscal support is improving the prospects that an economic recovery will be achieved by the end of 2021. Pending, Of course, the absence of prolonged lock downs. And some countries have more budgetary room to maneuver and are enjoying lower cost of borrowing as their monetary institution have further supported that financial markets are countries with higher debt service cost have to rely on global solidarity. These health related economic crises is highlighting the fact that our global market approach to trade that has many points of interconnectivity is only as strong as the weakest health system. Economic survival will be the focus in the short-term in 2021. However, more long-term resiliency will need to be engineered in our global market going forward. So now I invite you to move on to Professor Wang, who will look deeper in the US financial outlook. Thank you very much added. What are the financial markets experienced, dramatic stress and a recovery in 20-20. Everybody have nope jeez. In the equity markets. Since the beginning of the year, the SP 500 Index was this 30% lower than March and 23 March 23rd, and then came back to be 9.7% higher. As of this. To stay, the technology loaded, the nasdaq Composite Index who was down by 25, by 24% as of March 23rd in a store, up to 28.8% above the skew state. Also 2 thousand index of for smaller US firms. And it was minus 41% by March, torn by March 18th and then come back to to be positive 4.1%. As of this Tuesday, the volatility index a spike into 282.69 on March 23rd, and then eased into the normal range of about 25 in the treasury bond market to Federal Reserve cauda, overnight interest rate to 0 embark the ten-year yield remains below 1%. So March, the break even raid to was the 1.8% on January second then dropped to March 0.5%, and then now came back to 1.76% as though. But these acute state, and, uh, this, uh, read, this suggests as a shows the inflation, long-term expectation of inflation in the US incorporated type marketed the investment agree the bong credit risk-free, remember rose to F from of P3 basis point to 235 basis point, and then ease back into 63 base. It's a coin. The credit risk premium over the high yield of the bond, the jump from us 3.5% at the beginning of the year to more than 10%, enlarge it and then come down to 4 a to 2% as filled with institute state. And all are 0s appear to its to indicate a near the food recovery over the financial markets. And this is a really striking and primes the polyethylene because the economy is still far away from a lot of Folder recovery. Next slide, please. To understand that the financial markets in 2022 and to focus Denmark is in 2021, we must understand the three new factors that are currently dominate the financial markets. The first thing you'll factor is, of course, the new virus that impacts at different industries very differently. At the top, the top chart on this slide, the shoes, the strikingly different to returns the indifferent to into students o ends up at the end of October this year. The top bottom chart, shoes. If we exclude IPO, Microsoft, Amazon, Facebook, and the alphabet, the SP 500 return, it's actually negative by the end of the October. It's the very opposite of what the index, totally index actually suggest. This. So this is a shaves differentially impact of this in the sea new bearers. The second new factor is the extraordinary monetary policy and a physical stimulus. Besides cocking overnight interest rate of 0, the Federal Reserve has been purchasing $120 billion of SS every monks since March. Name also, as alea hasn't mentioned, that the Congress has to pass that to 2D and Allah cares act to stimulated the economy. And then the third, a new factor is extreme uncertainty about the path of the recovery. We're not even sure whether the industry will actually recover or has to restructure to a new novel order which the barriers to leave alone with that. This uncertainty then coincide with the political uncertainty or we election, which has implications to future fiscal policy, tax and regulation. And these factors are new and a Tolman and they make all of our existing analytically to basically irrelevant and a whistle dissipate grounder. We are here to do our best to forecast the market next year. Perhaps I should say, that we can only guess instead of forecast the next year, next slide, please. So yet again, in this background, and then we do see some while we do have some optimism a bear and offers the Fed, the community to support the markets and the economy. They committed it to keep the interest rate below 0 until 22-23 and that they would've continued. I said purchase NL also indicated in case of a need there waiting to increase the size of the purchase. And then we do have some hole before additional physical stimulus and a samba kind or some site. And now the inflation is expected to be low. We see that are in the realize the inflation. And, uh, we also see the inflation expectations in financial market, which has remained to be lower than 2%. But the other things that we see we're happy with is the business adaptability and innovation. A third, a quarter GDP was with GDP growth was a 33% analyze. And unless third-quarter IPOs is the 165, and that's the extraordinarily high. And, uh, we also see a sharp increase in new business applications. And all of these suggest the suspend the ability of our or adaptability and that innovation our business. And also recently we see the acceleration of the vaccine development so which make an market really optimistic. And at the top, charge shoes at the fed balance sheet increase this. And I think that it goes up to $7 trillion now and find a comedic with forward that is support. But we do hat c, risk a bear. And that number, why risk it is, of course, at the curb out the pandemic and additional shutdowns. And now we see the recent surge of the infections in hospitalization in the past few days. And that this still remind us that this distance is number one risk that they were going to face. And of the other risk that we see is the over valuation of equity. And one, we'd look at the PE ratio, which is displayed in the button chart on this slide, we see that the PE ratio huge jump really high. The SP, SP 500 PE ratio raised about 2525. And that means suggest that the pricing of equity seems a very expensive. Compare the historical level and, uh, we don't have anymore though, and any theory to justify the so far and the NAS Waldheim GDP ratios as even higher. That goes to 40, goes to 14. Okay? Now we also see the undervaluation of acquainted arrays. And now basically the correct it is bright, it is remain to be very low. One actually give companies a leverage increase. And recently there are summer study and a report showing the role also 2000 firm leveraging if such substantially increased. And now what would this be a really risk? And at that, yeah, typically decision to be a huge risk to that accompanies. However, seems like a, we don't see this created a premium to jump to the, mainly because the Federal Reserve supported they purchase in a corporate abed. Also. They also keep the interests are very low so that the company can key service that any. So. And as long as the Federal Reserve and keep their support seems like a, this risk and risk premium repaying that low. But the risk may be, is beer and that this is going to be potential distortion by did the Federal Reserve's The Intervention. And this is another risk, may not be that being the other risk is the burden of the national debt. And the top chart shows that the national debt. A landlord supports me 100% of GDP. And this could be a pressure for the economy, for reentry history, the OPO boring radar, and for inflation. However, we don't see any signal right now. And what are we just focused 20-20. Why maybe this was less and less and an emerging problem. The other awesome d is related to the size of the additional stimulus array now, and at the sender Republic Tez, the republicans don't want a large stimulated. They argue for much smaller severe A's as stimulus and how that would play out at death, it becomes an issue. Everybody agree they wished there should be stimulus, but the size and the distribution. And that is up to be political debate. And let the other uncertainty is this taxation policy and a new administration and their regulation changes in the new demonstration. But I'll overall, and one we look at this and as same silica, we are optimistic that the Federal Reserve's support. We are optimistic about the inflation, the low inflation. We're optimistic about the continuing in the ability and the innovation of the business. And perhaps the vaccine will really help change the trajectory of the recovery so that we can really raise you to DOD. Quality traditionally called me couldn't recover. And given this and as I said, have any tool for new factors in a, we have to make a forecast so that generally we expect an equity returns to go up and the next year. And, uh, we think that the optimal factors and a world dominated this risk and maybe a will be mitigated. I don't think that the Federal Reserve world and pull out just support if they see any sign of increase in bankruptcy. And so overall, our focus is positive and this is the time that, uh, we don't think anyone can gave a number. And thank you very much. And now let me pass to Kyle to talk about it, the focus out make DNA economies. Thank you, Jen, you and good morning everyone. And I just let me say that I miss so much being how enrichment in person this year to see all of you. But I hope this is valuable and good experience anyway, even if it's not the same. I'm going to talk about the Indiana economy. And basically just a few things you need to know. What is that? We are a pro cyclical economy. And what I mean by that is when things are going well. He tends to do a little bit better. And when things go poorly, Indiana tends to do a little bit worse. In this chart on the right here is a little bit hard to read, but it kinda shows employment growth over the last number of years. And what it shows is when our economy was expanding, Indiana was doing a little bit better than the US as a whole. But when the, this shut down and recession hit earlier this year, indiana lost more jobs. But now that we've kind of split that, the recovery is going a little bit faster. And the reason for that largely has to do with we're disproportionately a manufacturing state. And that really drives a lot of our economic differences between the US as a whole and what happens here in Indiana. The locked down really are, a lot of factories were shut down. Manufacturing's that a sector that can work from home and do as well. But now that we're at least safely opening our manufacturing facilities in our goods production. We're actually doing a little bit better now. The unemployment rate is at 6.2%, said, but I put a little thing here that says 60 thousand are missing. And what I mean by that is there are 60 thousand folks who have left the labor force since the basically since february who are no longer in there. And that can be due to taking care of family members. It can be due to economic conditions, the structural job. People lost their job and then they've just pulled out of the labor market. If we factored those folks in, the unemployment rate would be closer to 99.5%. So May 6.2% not sound too bad. But the damage is actually a little bit higher than that, although we are stronger than some comparable state. So if we look around at Ohio, Illinois, Michigan, those states are having higher unemployment rates than we are right now. So if we go to the next slide, you'll see that the Indian economy is not a single Academy. Economic growth is strongest in the urban area. So Indianapolis, the Louisville area, which is obviously not Indiana, but knew already that southeast portion of the state. So the college towns are doing pretty well. Smaller towns are struggling a little more. And we'll probably hear a little bit more about that from oil in it. She gives the local, but it's not the same everywhere. Jobs growth has been strongest in construction. The construction industry holds up pretty well, especially on the residential side. Transportation warehousing. We all know that we've been ordering more things from ordering more things online, getting it from Amazon or whatever. Amazon has a lot of facilities here in the transportation warehousing. So we're really seeing that play out from a jobs point-of-view. And health care. And this is not only pandemic related, but actually, you know, our aging demographics, we're seeing fastest growth. They're weaker in retail and education. So with that, we'll move to the state forecast. So output is going to increase and jobs growth will happen in 2021. And I feel pretty good about that. I know we're in a situation where the pandemic is probably at its worst right now and it seems to be getting worse every day. And so the, the short-term impact of that is going to be significant. But as we get into 2021, I think will continued to grow the economy here in Indiana. We will offset a lot of the damage that's been done 20-20. But what I mean by that is we're going to end up with what I call a lost two years. So I think by the end of 2021, we're going to look a lot like where we were at the end of 2019, which sounds like a recovery and it is, but it means we've lost two years of economic growth and job growth and things that are really beneficial. On an echo some of the points talking about the economic stimulus being needed and just how that kind of plays out in Indiana. You know, consumer incomes, the reason our recession hasn't been worse, believe it or not, because of that cares act. And consumer incomes have been largely protected this year. But we're going to start seeing some strains on that. So if we want demand for manufactured goods in here in Indiana, consumers needs some help. Small businesses need some help, and state and local governments, tax revenues are going to be down. If we see large budget cuts there, that's going to dampen the recovery. I expect that unemployment will fall to between 4, 5%. Again, that's kind of by the end of 2021. So that sounds like a pretty good number, that that's a reasonable area to be back to improve trade. So trade has been hit on a couple of France. Obviously a pandemic doesn't help. Even going back the last several years, we've had trade policy that is that open and beneficial to free trade. I think a new administration will take a different look at that, but we really don't know what the bide administration, how they, how they will approach trade. Because there's really very little policy discussion during the election season. And all of this is dependent upon the pandemic improving, right? Like that, that should always be in there. I think you will improve. Again, that's a 2021 forecast that doesn't ignore the fact that we've got some near term pain going on right now. With that, I'm going to pass it over to oil in for the local forecast. Thank you, Kyle. My report for this year is as follows of Wayne County and the border which when Wager importing the seven these central Indiana counties, namely failure card, Frankin Henry, Rand off rush, union, and we continued to follow an upward trend in total personal income in 2018. The region's total personal income also started to diverge more on the upside from the trend line. These illustrated a persistent improvement in economic activity and even stand in the county at the same time the wage and improved by more, then that would have been. Predictive when current is told to personal income was $2,736,000,654 thousand in 2002, a by 4.4% from the 2017 level, and ranks 26th in the state of Indiana. Wayne County had a per capita personal income piece CPI of $41,505 in 2018 are from 2017 by 4.7%. This level, which the 88% of Indiana's average of $47,149 when country-specific PI was about the same as the regional average of $41,692. The county's CPI, CPI rendered a 52nd among the states. Latitude counties continued to neck be high, Frankin and rush counties, which were the only two counties catching up with the state average. The others in the region falling behind Serif can be by over 10%. When counties labor force was made up of 30,516 people in August 20th, 20, representing 31.8% of the region's total labor force of 96,001 people. The Canvas average one phrase size of labor force of 30,269 people for the first second month in 2020 was down by 2.5% as compared with last year. Norwegian also saw the same percentage decrease in labor force. When counties wonderfully unemployment rate was ever reached 3.6% in the first quarter of 2020. It went up by three times two for t important presented in April, that back down to about 10%. For the link to mumps. The county saw a further back down in the unemployment rate to about 7% in July and August. Auto region has about the same monthly unemployment rate FOR age in the first quarter of 2020 as a whole is suffered a high unemployment rate in April and May. During the most difficult time, a probably may. Over the first six months in 2020, when county came out slightly better than the region. And the state, as measured by the unemployment rate. When count is average monthly unemployment rate was 7.6%. Wild dogs, softer region and the state we're at present for these months. Next slide, please. When Congress private sector lost 652 jobs in the first quarter of 2020 as compared with the P with IR. Such job loss account for over 50% of the total private job loss in the region. The number of job loss in administrative support, race management, and remediation contributed to more to more than half of the private sector job growth scene. When County, both manufacturing and Healthcare and social service as head. Loss over a t jobs. The next hardest hit industries were finance and insulins, and accommodation and food services, both of which lost 45 jobs or more than one year. Change suggested that transport, mission and warehousing experienced a significant growth in employment by adding by ethanol 62 jobs. The region as a whole saw a significant expansion in construction and accommodation and food services as estimated from Darwin level data. Although the average weekly wage for or private jobs in Wayne County was 3.2% higher than the counterpart regional average in the first quarter of 2020. The world percentage in such average work for Wayne County was less than half of the growth of the region. In Wayne County. Mining, construction, information and finance and insurance, they underwent significant increase in weekly wages. While utilities come weekly wage as much as by 1 fifth for the region. The industries that had a significant raising weekly wage in poor construction will essay and went ON missing, as well as Ax, entertainment and recreation. Due to space limit devouring related information is not shown on this slide. You Wayne County, single-family home sales was slightly higher. Number a compound with a significant increase in the median sales price during the first egg forms of 20-20 as compared with Nazi. 560 nice single family homes where salt with $110 thousand system medium price. This pattern resembled end to a slightly better extend depth of the rest of Indiana on themselves. While FEI a county and Randolph County, we caught a slight decline in home sales with a rising median sales price of less than 6%. Wash Carnegie had a much greater decline to only one home at a price of 58.3% higher than the median price of glasses selves, you will encounter. You have more than three times as much for themselves with the medium price more than 50 times higher. Franklin County and Henry County has significant increase in home steps. However, the median prices were about the same for Franklin County or significantly and Noah for Henry County as compared with last year. Next Nyquist. The window of the composite IU is regional business confidence index dropped by 10.3% to 80.7 points in 2020 as compared with the previous year. While quotes sub-index has also had a job in value, the present situation in deaths had recorded a massive. What, where was the expectation in that survey said a wider decline. These suggested that the businesses in the region had experience a February much difficult time this year than nausea, and still expect a difficult year next year, although not aspect us this year. In our 20-20 essential Indiana Business survey conducted in September and October, only 1 third of the rate of businesses were able to increase their production. And Teslas activities this year. On the other hand, about half of them has suffered a decline. While more than half of the weight of businesses hire to the same number of employees, only a bow, a quarter of them. A notch. Day employment push. 40% of the businesses maintain the debt capital investment at the same level as the year before. Wireless, another 40% work wielding and to increase the Capitolium Muslim. Over 60% of their survey participants found that day a firm's cost of doing business as heck increased. 1 third of the way the business, we're able to increase that office wherever it's about. Vip pimps managed to maintain death perfect level. As the previous year. Comparing next year with this year Honest Abe, aspects, over 80% of the survey participants with an expect good firm stream result at least maintain the same level of production and business activity in the GSEA, while over half of the business is worth and what anticipate to continue hiring the same number of employees. A third of them will expect to have more employees and less than 1 tenth happened to kept employment level for next year. A similar distribution was anticipated in their capital U Muslims, well, on Godhead, over half of the survey participants what to expect, see an increase in deference cost of doing business in 2021. Y, only 5% were considered to have lower cost of doing business for next year. As far as for profitability of their firms. More than three quarters of the survey participants heck, hope of generating high, perfect or maintaining the same level at the lease in next year. A quarter of the way the business wielded dead. The economic condition in 2021 will remain about the same as in 20.521 of them were optimistic and only less than 1 fifth. We're pessimistic about a condition phase into enjoying cobol pandemic or about by a highly contagious virus. Both Wayne County and the region cannot be saved from. Is we so ten, negative economic impact, particularly the stove and businesses with low flexibility to go or NIH. Unemployment way for the region is expected to be quite what I swing around 6% threshold for next year. Well, why did that no further lockdown of in Persian appropriate activities will occur. This is dn up microwave or 40 CIA. Thank you. I will pastor, time back to ID for that Q and a section. Thank you so much to everyone. There we go. There's my camera. I appreciate so much this amazing information that has been shared with us. What very, very interesting implications for all aspects of the economy globally, nationally, state and local. I want to encourage anyone who has a question to submit that question in the Q and a. But in the meantime, I'm going to draw one question out to our panel and please feel free anyone can answer this. Obviously, there is some uncertainty regarding the results of the US election in terms of the Senate. The House controlled by Democrats, potentially the senate controlled by Republicans, depending on the Georgia election. What does this mean? Some people argued that gridlock is valuable thing in the economy in terms of having the different chambers controlled by different parties. But I'm just curious whether at the international level, the national level, state level or local level, what is the impact of having a divided House and Senate? I can jump in and maybe offer a little perspective. I think it certainly does. I mean, on the one hand, we've talked a lot about potentially needing some stimulus. I think it makes it a little harder for that to happen or maybe a little less likely that it would. From a kind of a business policy perspective. It does indicate that we're going to have some gridlock. So I talked to a lot of folks about health care and what's going to happen that, and the answer is probably very little. Lotsa, there won't be a major policy changes. And that does at least add to some comfort level that the businesses know what to expect coming in 2041. So there can be a silver lining, although I'm not sure I would categorize gridlock is paying a good thing right now. Air enough. Hearing up anyone else? Like can I thumped Dan and Anna? So to the economy, it's accompany KB issue to me and I, it's hard to say good or bad for financial or marketing. Yes. It's a very positive that's clear. Wall Street that, that be don't like change if they like certainty, they hate on uncertainty. And part of what the recent theurgy or the equity market and not partly on Pollock didn't believe that it is a reflection over descended to contrary expect descended the control. And then B. And this means that i is a harder for byte administration to reverse the text caught and buy them. We'll add that probably add more certainty to treat a policy even though he didn't tell lies much, it is still a lot of uncertainty. And these sick, he will not do that. The rape directories and I've kind of pretty tall King's body, Anna and Ben. In that sense, and that will create a certain identity, the gridlock. And it's, I think it in it and also it's a stop for our for the year for the regulation. And I think and competent Australia is in the process of L for rewind in the Volcker rule. And also the, there are the, are regulations like a bank regulation. The end looks like one of the major Bio Advisor is really through there. It's really hard. I'm bank regulation. And that's something that then the, I think a Wall Street really happy to have with the Senate to stop them. And I think we're just about out of time and I I do need to turnover, but I can't resist asking. I've heard so many different descriptions of the shape of the recovery and I know there is in so many ways it's premature given that we don't know about Coven, we maybe past a V-shaped recovery or V-shaped response is w is the EU, I've heard k. What is the shape of what we should expect going forward? Anyway? Where the cane shape, it really just means that we're going to have unequal recovery. And if you look at industry such as technology, retail, software services that have largely recovered, and they even have begun with hiring. But if you look at like travel, entertainment, hospitality, food services, they have continued to decline. So, you know, this is creating an uneven recovery and that's what the k shape is. Obviously the V-shape will be, or it will be a quick recovery for everybody. And a U-shape will take a little bit more time. But he's still will be a because R3, it doesn't seem like it's inequal recovery, especially not when you locating my perspective globally. Alright? And so can, I can imagine that not only would we Sheikh see potentially different shapes for different countries, but also for different states, depending on their met, their base of whether it's manufacturing or services. And even for local economies, we would see different shapes for the local, the local area. So it's interesting that there's going to be a multitude of alphabet letters that we have in terms of this recovery. I want to thank our panel what an amazing job you all did. I feel so much better informed about what look forward in the future, even if there remains a lot of uncertainty and I want to turn it back over to Dean Smith. Thank you. Thanks to all of you for attending our virtual presentation. We hope to be able to gather again soon and hopefully next, we'll be talking about the Business Outlook 2022 in person. Until then. Be well, be safe. Thank you to Dean Kasner and the panelists for your insight. Thank you to those who assisted with the technology as well. And go out and have a good day. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you.

Oi Lin Cheung
Associate Professor, Finance
Director, Center for Business and Economic Research
765-973-8497
Hayes Hall 255F
ocheung@iue.edu